Nigeria’s Asian friends

Nigerians heard right early February that President Goodluck Jonathan was going to meet with one of Nigeria’s Asian friends in Côte d’Ivoire. Over there, the President held a meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in the company of other ECOWAS leaders. But Abe’s men might have shot their country in the foot going by their comment after that meeting. They had targeted China, but occurrences since then indicated a rebound because China did hit back.

It means Japan is limping on African soil where it ought to run if it must catch up with China. Imagine, Japan hadn’t yet shoved China off the podium in Africa before one of its men said Japan, “cannot provide African leaders with beautiful houses or beautiful ministerial buildings”. So, what can Japan provide?  Tokyo’s policy is to “aid the human capital of Africa”, Abe’s man had added at the African Union headquarters.  It’s alright. It’s just that China got the point, and African leaders too must have taken note of a suitor who won’t build “beautiful houses” for his brides. Leaders here don’t take kindly to such talk. Or, who doesn’t know that Nigeria’s oil industry’s LNG-Halliburton bribe-for-contract, and Jacob Zuma’s bribe-for-arms deals in South Africa, typify how most contracts are awarded on the continent?

Meanwhile, China didn’t return home before it got an appropriate response for Japan’s shot. Its Permanent Ambassador to the AU had stood up in Addis Ababa and told the AU members that Japan isn’t only an unreliable suitor, but it’s too warlike for any delicate bride. And he showed pictures of how Japan killed Chinese in the Second World War, adding that Tokyo increased its military spending in recent times, and in East China sea in Asia, Japan has arrogated to itself an island China claims as its own. He also called Abe the “biggest troublemaker in Asia”, and days back, China spoke of introducing Day of Remembrance for the Chinese that Japan killed during the 1939-1945 wars. Anyway, one “k-leg” in China’s argument is that the accuser seems to have been second-guessing the accused, too: From January 7, China’s Foreign Affairs Minister was in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Ghana, and Senegal; that was two days ahead of Abe who arrived on January 9 for a weeklong tour of Côte d’Ivoire, Mozambique and Ethiopia. But China insists its Foreign Affairs Minister was in Africa because each new man in charge of the ministry traditionally visits Africa first to take a bow. China also claims it’s the only country from Asia that offers “sincere and selfless help” to Africa, warning that any other nation dreaming of upstaging it “is doomed to fail.” In spite of this, both countries have used the media to say it will amount to fantasy for anyone to imagine both countries are competing to win Africa’s hand in marriage.

All of that is fine and dandy; after all when diplomats shadow-punch in front of TV cameras, no one develops swollen lips. Reality is, back on their continent, China and Japan have been at each other’s throat of late. So, all of that drama is on a stage that extends from East China Sea to Africa. In East China Sea, both neighbours point accusing fingers at each other over a disputed island. Japan controls the island, but China, more than 50 times the size of Japan in land area, claims the island belongs to it. And with the WW11 during which Japan, a real military might in that region at the time, had dealt serious blows to China, Abe’s recent visit to a shrine where some Japanese convicted of war crimes were buried had got China fuming. So, what Abe is doing in Asia and in Africa follows a pattern. This politician has indicated that he doesn’t believe Japan owes China an apology for prosecuting the WW11 the way it did. Many have called that a pointer to the reawakening of Japanese nationalism; it’s that type of nationalism which had made Japanese soldiers in the war go to battlefields prepared to die rather than disgrace their emperor; the same nationalism that made one Japanese soldier stay on in the bush in Guam after the war ended because he didn’t want to disappoint the emperor. And he didn’t until 1972 when his former Unit Commander was sent from Japan to Guam where he ordered his patriotic subordinate to lay down his arms because the emperor had indeed said the war was over.

And there’s economic permutation to Abe’s moves. His country recently recovered from chronic deflation, and now he’s embarked on fiscal consolidation. He said so at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland late January. And because Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, has seen a turnaround from a negative GDP growth early 2013, Abe said in Davos that “it is not twilight but a new dawn that is breaking over Japan.” Then, he made himself a promise: “I am willing to act like a drill bit strong enough to break vested interests… no vested interests will remain immune from my drill.” One is safe to imagine that China is one of the vested interests he’s keen to break. He’s so clear-sighted with his vision, and consumed with the passion to execute his promise that he gives a name to his plan of giving life to Japan’s economy – Abenomics. Through it, he says he wants to “create a vibrant Japan that can bring peace and prosperity to the region (Asia) and the world.”  It’s clear Africa is not left out as a fodder in Abe’s scheme, and it’s here this writer wishes to argue that no matter what nationalistic or economic motives spur Japan or China to engage in rivalry over Africa, there are benefits for Nigeria if it organises itself well.

Earlier on in June 2013, Tokyo had hosted nearly 40 African leaders. Abe had promised at the time he would step up commercial engagement as well as offered $14bn in assistance to Africa spread over five years. And in Addis Ababa this January, he called Africa a “new frontier of Japanese diplomacy”. Japan is a known aid donor to Africa, and Abe had offered $2bn in the course of his latest visit. These are huge chunks of funds Africa can do a lot with. As for China, what it’s doing is well known from its actions. While Japan had operated somewhat quietly in past years, China had had the limelight. But accusations against its operations are  many. The West and organisations from the West frown at the manner China does business. Such include corrupt governments the West says it won’t do business with but with which China has no qualms doing business, backed by funds deposited in personal foreign bank accounts and  “beautiful houses” for leaders. The noise was much among informed Africans that China was stripping the continent of resources earlier on, until China changed strategy and engaged in high profile infrastructure development such as building stadia and donating same as gifts to some of the poorer African nations. And the AU is not left out of the largesse. Its glistering new headquarters is a donation from China. These are a few of the huge perimeter walls Japan will have to successfully jump over if it must beat China to the heart of African leaders, a thing that’s not as easy as it sounds considering Abe’s warning to engage in transparent business practices.

The overall focus of this piece though is Nigeria, one of the ECOWAS member states, which had sat to listen to Abe in Côte d’Ivoire. This country has had a long relationship with both China and Japan. So the point is, what the two Asian tigers are doing in their region of the world is not Nigeria’s business the same way what Israel and Iran are doing can’t be. What matters to  Nigeria in its relations with Japan and China is Nigeria’s national interest.

What those interests are in relation to these Asians are left for the foreign affairs establishment to outline and pursue. And this writer thinks the Asians will prove increasingly relevant for Nigeria these days that Western countries threaten to attach assistance to issues of homosexuality. As a result, the President should make relevant bodies come up with a comprehensive approach towards Asia, a strategy that gets the best for the country. With some creative thinking and good coordination, the nation can even make the most of the rivalry between Japan and China on the continent. This point is relevant because over the last seven years, this writer has pointed out shortcomings in how African leaders had been gathered in Beijing, New Delhi and Tokyo in that order.

A trend runs though: Outsiders take the initiatives, sit in control and mostly reap the benefits. In the face of this renewed interest by Asians, could Nigeria sit up and ensure it’s a co-pilot?